Based on the work of Charles M. Dow, Richard D. Wyckoff developed a comprehensive methodology of market analysis that remains tried, tested and true today. It has been improved and expanded on by Dr. Henry "Hank" O. Pruden of Golden Gate University (www.hankpruden.com).
Long Wave Dynamics is a methodology based on the work of P. Q. Wall. improved and expanded on by David Knox Barker. (www.longwavedynamics.com)
"3 Non Correlated Methods” Analysis is a methodology based on the work of Constance Browne. (www.aeroinvest.com)
Below is my offering which I have named "Wyckoff Long Wave Analysis" which is a synthesis of the various disciplines who's strengths I feel compliment each other and as a tribute to their creators.
Signal Indicators: Emotional Ranges are generated by Ratio Positions on the Fibonacci Grid
Fibonacci Ratios: Solitude range=0 -.382 / Normal range= .382 - .618 / Frenzy range= .618 - 1.00
Symbol: GLD
Period: Weekly
Analysis
RSI= Normal (transition) bullish turn but down from here very bearish
Price= Level 1 Normal (transition) Level 2 Grid Solitude (oversold) bullish on the 21 week moving average and well above the 55 week average strong uniform structure
Stochastic=Frenzy (overbought) bearish but turn up from here bullish
RSI Stochastic=Solitude (oversold) but seems to be competing 5 wave down leg
Level 1 Resistance: $1516.84
Level 1 Support: $1275.38
Conclusion: signals are mixed
Action: Hold
Period: Daily
Analysis
RSI= Solitude (oversold) bullish
Price=Solitude (oversold) bullish
Stochastic=Solitude (oversold) bullish
RSI Stochastic=Solitude (oversold) bullish
Level 2 Resistance: $1500.20
Level 2 Support: $1440.01
Conclusion: some follow through would support bullish pennant theory
Action: Buy/Hold tight 3% trailing stop
Market Stats
O $146.96 H $147.82 L $146.85 C $147.63 Vol 11,300,000
Point and Figure
Analysis: Looks vulnerable and scary! homer no like! I would prefer to see a symetrical triangle or flag or pennant. this looks like distribution pattern
Conclusion : Bear target $140 Bull target $156
Action: Hold
Cycle Projections and Interactive Fibonacci Grids are generated and courtesy of David Knox Barker and Long Wave Dynamics.
Wall Cycle Top Projection
Start: 6/22/2011
Date Fibonacci Ratio Status
8/15/2011 61.803% Shorter than Ideal
8/31/2011 50% Shorter than Ideal
9/17/2011 38.196% Shorter than Ideal
10/8/2011 23.606% Shorter than Ideal
10/21/2011 14.589% Shorter than Ideal
10/29/2011 9.016% Shorter than Ideal
11/2/2011 5.572% Shorter than Ideal
11/10/2011 0% IDEAL TARGET
11/18/2011 5.572% Longer than Ideal
11/23/2011 9.016% Longer than Ideal
12/1/2011 14.589% Longer than Ideal
12/14/2011 23.606% Longer than Ideal
1/4/2012 38.196% Longer than Ideal
1/20/2012 50% Longer than Ideal
2/6/2012 61.803% Longer than Ideal
3/31/2012 100% Longer than Ideal
6/27/2012 161.803% Longer than Ideal
Start 1/7/2011
Date Fibonacci Ratios Status
9/9/2011 50% Shorter than Ideal
9/26/2011 38.196% Shorter than Ideal
10/17/2011 23.606% Shorter than Ideal
10/30/2011 14.589% Shorter than Ideal
11/7/2011 9.016% Shorter than Ideal
11/11/2011 5.572% Shorter than Ideal
11/19/2011 0% IDEAL TARGET
11/27/2011 5.572% Longer than Ideal
12/2/2011 9.016% Longer than Ideal
12/10/2011 14.589% Longer than Ideal
12/23/2011 23.606% Longer than Ideal
1/13/2012 38.196% Longer than Ideal
1/29/2012 50% Longer than Ideal
2/15/2012 61.803% Longer than Ideal
4/9/2012 100% Longer than Ideal
7/6/2012 161.803% Longer than Ideal
Interactive Fibonacci Grid Price Projections
Level 1 GridHigh 2298.26 1.0000
2184.24 0.94427
2113.79 0.90983
1999.78 0.8541
1815.31 0.76393
1516.84 0.61803 Resistance
1275.38 0.5 Support
1033.89 0.38196
735.42 0.23606
550.95 0.14589
436.94 0.09016
366.48 0.05572
252.50 Low Analysis: Normal (transition) Golden Ratio is over head
Conclusion: Golden ratio will act as strong resistance until over come
Action: Hold/Neutral tighten stops
Level 2 Grid
High 1815.31 1.0000
1792.32 0.94427
1778.11 0.90983
1755.12 0.8541
1717.93 0.76393
1657.75 0.61803
1609.07 0.5
1560.38 0.38196
1500.20 0.23606 Resistance
1463.00 0.14589
1440.01 0.09016 Support
1425.81 0.05572
1402.83 Low
Analysis: Solitude (oversold) Bullish
Conclusion:Golden Ratio on grid 1 will act as extreme resistance over head this will be a true test of the Bulls will!
Action: Hold/Accumulate
Bradly Siderograph for S&P 500
Major Turns
Feb 17 2011
July 29 2011
Dec 28 2011
Minor Turns
1/6/11
2/3/11
6/15/11 * near miss 6/17/11 up
6/22/11 * Hit down
8/20/11
8/30/11
9/26/11
10/12/11
10/28/11
11/22/11
11/23/11
We do not purport to tell or suggest which investment securities you should buy or sell for yourself. You should always conduct your own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any investment decision. We will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by your reliance on information obtained in any of our newsletters, special reports, email correspondence, or on our web site. You are solely responsible for your own investment decisions.
The information contained herein does not constitute a representation by Wyckoff Long Wave Analysis or a solicitation for the purchase or sale of securities. Our opinions and analysis are based on sources believed to be reliable and are written in good faith, but no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made as to their accuracy or completeness. All information contained in our newsletters or on our web site should be independently verified with the companies mentioned. We are not responsible for errors or omissions and owners, employees and writers may hold positions in the securities that are discussed in our newsletters or on our web site.
Any opinions expressed are subject to change without notice.
No comments:
Post a Comment