The Silver Foxes Den: GLD Study

Wyckoff Long Wave Analysis

 Based on the work of Charles M. Dow, Richard D. Wyckoff developed a comprehensive methodology of market analysis that remains tried, tested and true today.  It has been improved and expanded on by Dr. Henry "Hank" O. Pruden of Golden Gate University (www.hankpruden.com).

Long Wave Dynamics is a methodology based on the work of P. Q. Wall. improved and expanded on by David Knox Barker. (www.longwavedynamics.com)

"3 Non Correlated Methods” Analysis is a methodology based on the work of Constance Browne. (www.aeroinvest.com)

Below is my offering which I have named "Wyckoff Long Wave Analysis" which is a synthesis of the various disciplines who's strengths I feel compliment each other and as a tribute to their creators.

Signal Indicators: Emotional Ranges are generated by Ratio Positions on the Fibonacci Grid

Fibonacci Ratios: Solitude range=0 -.382 / Normal range= .382 - .618 / Frenzy range= .618 - 1.00

Symbol: GLD

Period: Weekly

where we were .......

where we are now...

Analysis

RSI= Normal (transition) Bullish Bias

Price= L1 Grid Frenzy (overbought)

Stochastic=Normal (transition) Bullish Bias

RSI Stochastic = Solitude (oversold)Bullish Bias

Level 1 Grid
 1999.78       0.8541  

 1815.31       0.76393 Resistance

 1516.84       0.61803 Support

    

Conclusion: Oversold with RSI holding in the Normal (transition) range this looks like a buying opportunity. GLD appears to be completing an reverse Head and Shoulder pattern as well as a downward triangle.


Action: old positions Hold / new positions Buy 

where we were....

where we are now...
 



Analysis
RSI= Normal (transition) Bearish bias still suppressed by supported over 30%

Price = Level 2 Grid Frenzy (overbought)
Stochastic =Frenzy (overbought) Bullish bias

RSI Stochastic =  Frenzy (overbought)

Conclusion: Gold is in transition stage as it works it's way through a Bearish reversal pattern and reverse head and shoulders. Mixed signals do not give clear directions

Action: old positions Hold review Trailing Stop /Buy with Trailing Stop

Point and Figure
where we were....

where we are now..... 

Market Stats

O $161.78
H $161.97

L $161.15

C $161.38
VOL 8,300,000

Analysis:  Price remains stalled in a very tight range previously we had felt an uptrend was due but there are mixed signals as the overall pattern of the chart appears to be a double top with a second double top at 174.

Action: Hold review stops

Bullish Percent
where we were...

Bullish percent is signaling a major buying opportunity gentlemen start your engines!

where we are now...



an even better opportunity!

Long Wave position is Solitude which is defined as oversold and should be viewed as Bullish for Gold Miners

Cycle Projections and Interactive Fibonacci Grids are generated and courtesy of David Knox Barker and Long Wave Dynamics.

Wall Cycle Top Projection

Start: 6/22/2011

Date Fibonacci Ratio Status

8/15/2011       61.803%        Shorter than Ideal  *hit

8/31/2011       50%        Shorter than Ideal

9/17/2011      38.196%        Shorter than Ideal  *hit

10/8/2011       23.606%        Shorter than Ideal

10/21/2011       14.589%        Shorter than Ideal

10/29/2011       9.016%        Shorter than Ideal

11/2/2011       5.572%        Shorter than Ideal

11/10/2011       0%        IDEAL TARGET

11/18/2011       5.572%        Longer than Ideal

11/23/2011       9.016%        Longer than Ideal

12/1/2011       14.589%        Longer than Ideal

12/14/2011       23.606%        Longer than Ideal

1/4/2012       38.196%        Longer than Ideal

1/20/2012       50%        Longer than Ideal

2/6/2012       61.803%        Longer than Ideal

3/31/2012       100%        Longer than Ideal

6/27/2012       161.803%        Longer than Ideal

Wall Cycle Bottom Projection
Start 1/7/2011

Date Fibonacci Ratios Status

8/24/2011       61.803%        Shorter than Ideal

9/9/2011      50%       Shorter than Ideal

9/26/2011       38.196%        Shorter than Ideal

10/17/2011       23.606%        Shorter than Ideal

10/30/2011       14.589%        Shorter than Ideal

11/7/2011       9.016%        Shorter than Ideal

11/11/2011       5.572%        Shorter than Ideal

11/19/2011       0%        IDEAL TARGET

11/27/2011       5.572%        Longer than Ideal

12/2/2011       9.016%        Longer than Ideal

12/10/2011       14.589%        Longer than Ideal

12/23/2011       23.606%        Longer than Ideal

1/13/2012       38.196%        Longer than Ideal

1/29/2012       50%        Longer than Ideal

2/15/2012       61.803%        Longer than Ideal

4/9/2012       100%        Longer than Ideal

7/6/2012       161.803%        Longer than Ideal

Interactive Fibonacci Grid Price Projections

Level 1 Grid
  High

       2184.24       0.94427

       2113.79       0.90983

       1999.78       0.8541

       1815.31       0.76393 Resistance

       1516.84       0.61803 Support

       1275.38       0.5

       1033.89       0.38196

       735.42       0.23606

       550.95       0.14589

       436.94       0.09016

       366.48       0.05572

Low Low

Level 2 Grid

Interactive Fibonacci Grid

High 1999.78

       1972.86       0.94427

       1956.23       0.90983

       1929.31       0.8541     

       1885.77       0.76393   

       1815.31       0.61803

       1758.31       0.5

       1701.30       0.38196 Resistance

       1630.84       0.23606 Support

       1587.29       0.14589 

       1560.38       0.09016

       1543.74      0.05572

Low  1516.84

Bradly Siderograph for S&P 500

Major Turns

16 /3 2012
12/ 6 2012
28/7 2012
22/12 2012

Link here to my MTA presentation
http://media.mta.org/videos/2012/educational-web-series/russell-berkhoven/russell-berkhoven.html

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~ Manusmriti, 1200 BC

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~ Michael Ellner

Mohandas Karamachand Gandhi, one of the most influential figures in modern social and political activism, considered these traits to be the most spiritually perilous to humanity. "Seven Social Sins * Politics without Principle * Wealth Without Work * Pleasure Without Conscience * Knowledge without Character * Commerce without Morality * Science without Humanity * Worship without Sacrifice" This is the 8th sin by Arun Gandhi. * "Rights Without Responsibility" ~ Mohandas Karamachand Gandhi (1925) Young India

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